Valuations of the companies shaping the digital-asset and AI economy — built from primary filings, with the model attached.
Five gauges published the night before SpaceX’s first-ever earnings report, scored with no edits: three cleared, two missed. The guide we were told did not exist is the quarter’s most aggressive number — $100bn of annualised revenue by December against $23bn today — fair value rises 18% to $78.51, and the AVOID stands. And 911.5 million shares unlock 6 August into a float of 646 million.
Read the note →·PDF·The pre-print gauges →The sequel scores the print: every pre-registered threshold cleared — revenue $1.94bn (+93%), guide $8.15bn (+82%) — and fair value restates $112 → $149 under rules written before the answer. By the open the market had repriced through it: at $154 and 59× sales, richer than before the print, the burden of proof now rides with the bulls.
Read the note →·PDF·The original framework →SpaceX reports tomorrow — the first earnings print in its 24-year history — down 31% from its first close toward the $66.50 fair value of our June initiation. What the print must show to justify even $111: five gauges pre-registered the night before, a first-print straddle with no base rate for anyone, and the Tesla-merger arithmetic the descent is repricing weekly.
Read the note →·PDF·The original valuation →Palantir reports tonight at 56× sales. We run the valuation backwards: the price demands ~31% revenue growth for a decade, and the whole bull–bear fight compresses to one number — the fade rate. Breakeven ×0.78; weighted fair value $112. Falsifiable within hours.
Read the note →·PDF$115.9bn of equipment in one year, Big Tech's widest server depreciation range, and $17.95 of EPS that our three-year clock re-marks to $16.96. On the day it filed “no change,” it stretched a different clock instead.
Read the note →·PDFThe only company in Big Tech that ever shortened a server clock — and it paid double its own guide for the honesty. AWS grew its fastest in eighteen quarters; trailing free cash flow went negative anyway.
Read the note →·PDFFour of the Mag 7 spend $1–2 on AI hardware per dollar earned; Apple spends seven cents, and its capex is falling. The house depreciation re-mark rounds to zero. The cleanest earnings in the index, at its most expensive price.
Read the note →·PDFEvery server is paid for twice: cash today, earnings tomorrow. The first payment hit $31.1bn against $15.8bn of net income — and the second, on the longest server clock in Big Tech, has barely begun.
Read the note →·PDFOur June valuation called the risk a slow funding drain, not a liquidation. Q2 ran it in real time: the dollar reserve fell to half a year of coverage, bitcoin was sold at a $203M realized loss to fund a preferred dividend, and STRC broke to $70. Eight of our own claims scorecarded — one of them wrong — plus two claims from the call that do not survive scrutiny.
Read the note →·PDF·The original valuation →Record market share, record USDC, a new $100M product line — against a revenue miss, a third straight GAAP loss, and a worse July. Trigger check on our July valuation: nothing tripped; fair value holds at ≈$102 vs ~$155.
Read the note →·PDF·The original valuation →Alphabet trades at a reported 17× earnings. Strip out the $99.0bn securities gain and the clean multiple is 33×. Capex now exceeds operating cash flow. The distance from our fair value to the market's price is not a disagreement about the business — it is three accounting conventions.
Read the note →·PDFEighty-six percent of Tesla's $1,088bn enterprise value is the price of robotaxi and Optimus. That price embeds roughly four times the company's own board-set milestone of one million robotaxis — at one-seventh the valuation the award attaches to it. Unsupervised vehicles counted today: about 21.
Read the note →·PDFThe purest winner of the AI power buildout beat Q2 and raised guidance — and fell 8.7% anyway, because at ~25× its own 2028 target the good news was already paid for. Backlog $176bn, turbines sold out to 2030. The multiple, not the business, is the risk.
Read the note →·PDFThe best business in the AI complex, at a price that already assumes the buildout never plateaus. A reverse-DCF says $203 requires ~$1tn of revenue by FY2031 — and NVIDIA's revenue is, by identity, other companies' capex. Great business, full price.
Read the note →·PDFA 64% fall took Oracle from pricing its nameplate AI backlog to pricing our base case. The legacy software annuity is worth ~$72 a share alone; at $124 the market pays ~$52 for an AI bet whose defining margin Oracle will not disclose — full value for an outcome that must go right.
Read the note →·PDFThe neocloud thesis in one security. Revenue more contracted than its peers' — take-or-pay, prepaid, Microsoft-anchored — but the signed book covers a seventh of the price, and the rest is a levered option on how long a GPU stays useful, behind $25B of debt.
Read the note →·PDFThe price is a growth commitment. Robinhood broke its crypto dependency mid-winter — crypto revenue halved while total revenue grew — but at ≈62× normalized earnings, $110 banks a 20%-a-year compounding machine for four uninterrupted years, with its fastest-growing line awaiting a Supreme Court petition.
Read the note →·PDFThe most misread name in crypto. Reported revenue overstates the business (a third is low-margin bitcoin pass-through) and a tripled loss line is mostly accounting timing, not a credit blow-up — underneath sits a mid-teens gross-profit compounder priced at roughly fair value, conditional on one credit signal.
Read the note →·PDFThe price of distribution. Circle earns the interest on $73B of USDC — then pays nearly two-thirds of it away to the partners who distribute it. A July OCC national trust-bank charter widens the moat but leaves that split — the reason it screens rich — untouched; fair value holds at ≈$50.
Read the note →·PDFThe right company at the wrong price. Coinbase is two businesses — a hyper-cyclical trading franchise and a quietly compounding “financial plumbing” annuity — and at today’s price the market pays a peak year as if it were permanent, returning less than simply holding bitcoin in every scenario.
Read the note →·PDF·Q2'26 addendum →What are you really buying? After a brutal de-rating the famous NAV premium is gone — MSTR trades at ~1.0× net asset value, no longer the “$2.50 for $1 of bitcoin” the bears shorted. What’s left is a ~1.7× levered, convex bet on bitcoin carrying a permanent preferred coupon.
Read the note →·PDF·Valuation model (XLSX)Priced for Mars: the $1.77 trillion listing embeds the bull case, and then some. A full valuation built from the S-1/A puts fair value at $66 against a $135 offer — a structurally rich entry that leaves no margin of safety for execution risk on Starship or Starlink.
Read the note →·PDF·Valuation model (XLSX)Coverage is initiated selectively, where a primary-filing-driven valuation adds something the sell-side consensus misses. New reports are added here as they publish. For broader thematic and empirical work, see the research library.