TON618 Capital is a research-driven Bitcoin and technology fund. We seek alpha by separating signal from noise and applying investment discipline — and we publish the research behind our view, for free.
A black hole so massive it shines as the brightest quasar in the sky — light cast from the edge of the void. TON 618
Thematic and empirical notes, written to CFA standards and published in full, for free.
Three clocks for "useful": narrow scientific value now, broad commercial value in the 2030s, and a code-breaking machine now put at roughly one-in-three within ten years — the Bitcoin-specific risk in proportion.
Read →A probability for H.R. 3633 being signed on or before 31 July 2026, triangulated across a Kalshi market, a structural conditional-gate model, and an outside-view reference class. Central estimate ~13%.
Read →Every factor that actually leads Bitcoin — global liquidity, the business cycle, momentum, the power-law oscillator, the production-cost floor — and an honest scorecard on the store-of-value question.
Read →CFA-standard valuations of the companies shaping the digital-asset and AI economy — built from primary filings, with the model attached.
Priced for Mars: the $1.77 trillion listing embeds the bull case, and then some. Fair value $66 against a $135 offer, built from the S-1/A.
Read →·PDF·Model