The fund’s work on Bitcoin — market structure and the ownership base, on-chain evidence read honestly, the size of the institutional bid, the treasury companies, and the policy calendar.
Strategy says its last business is distribution — wrapping bitcoin in paper the mandated money can buy. We went looking for that buyer in the SEC's own records and in what management said on 17 August. What we found instead: a coupon that only goes up, and a bill paid by the common. Follows The Solvency Map.
Read the note →·PDFStrategy published an interactive chart of the bitcoin prices at which its converts and preferreds go undercollateralized. We reproduced its floors to the dollar and reverse-engineered its formulas — then found the market pricing the same preferreds 5–63× wider than the model grades itself. The floors are real; the spreads are not. A follow-up to our June valuation and Q2 addendum.
Read the note →·PDFStrategy's USD Reserve fell 61% between January and May with no balance disclosed in between — and STRC's break from $100 dates from the week the number resurfaced. The anatomy of a broken and repaired peg: the June 29 framework and the refill carried the preferred from $74.57 back toward par, while the buyback's measured price effect rests on a single session, tested against the sibling preferreds that got none.
Read the note →·PDFSix weeks after our first quantum assessment set three pre-registered tripwires, we go back and score them. The logical-qubit frontier moved 48→70 (claimed), the quantum stocks fell 10–26% through the field’s best-ever news cycle, and Bitcoin’s fix got funded and specified — but not activated. One tripwire is warm; four new ones close the note.
Read the note →·PDFOur June note called the risk a slow funding drain rather than a liquidation. Q2 ran it in real time: the dollar reserve fell to half a year of coverage, bitcoin was sold at a $203M realized loss to pay a preferred dividend, and the flagship preferred broke to $70. We scorecard our own eight claims — including one we got wrong — and audit two claims from the call. Fair value ≈$94, against a stock that now trades at exactly its net asset value. Companion to What Are You Really Buying? Also under Tech Valuation.
Read the note →·PDF·The original valuation →·Track record →Three and a half years as the market’s levered bitcoin proxy moved Strategy two index points against simply holding the coin. The premium everyone credits to that monopoly showed up only after the spot ETFs listed — and nine-tenths of it is already gone. Strip out the leverage and six years of alpha comes to −0.1% a year. Companion to What Are You Really Buying?
Read the note →·PDF·The valuation →Every crypto law so far has moved Bitcoin roughly 0%. Yet a 0.25% advisor-platform allocation would need to buy 44% of every coin on every exchange — and the shelves sit at an 8.5-year low. Three scenarios for passage, each with a checklist you can score in real time. Companion to CLARITY’s Endgame.
Read the note →·PDF·The odds: CLARITY’s Endgame →In June we put ~13% on a before-August signing of the crypto market-structure bill (the original note) against a market at 18% — that contract is dying at under 1¢. The sequel restages the question: ~2% by the recess, ~18% in the three-week September window, ~35% for 2026 at all.
Read the note →·PDF·What passage means for BTC →Two arguments say Bitcoin's trouble is permanent this time: the gamblers left for prediction markets, and the mining megawatts pay 10–20× more serving AI. Tested against flows, filings, and 20 GW of tenant-less power, one is mostly rejected — and the other is true about the wrong thing.
Read the note →·PDFInstitutions already hold ~$143B of Bitcoin — one-tenth of one percent of a $144-trillion pool. A channel-by-channel build across treasuries, ETFs, pensions, insurers, banks, sovereign funds, stablecoin issuers, and central banks puts the base case at ~$556B and $180–250k by 2030. A second lens — Bitcoin as a store of value rivaling gold, bonds, and real estate — lifts the band to $500k–$1.3M, with full gold parity alone computing to ~$1.4M a coin. And all of it collides with a shrinking float: only ~2.4M liquid coins against demand running ~9× new issuance.
Read the note →·PDFWhales reportedly absorbed a record ~270,000 BTC into the June low while US spot ETFs bled their worst month ever — the sharpest ownership-transfer divergence of the ETF era. What that signal is actually worth, backtested: conviction buyers build floors, flow buyers build turns.
Read the note →·PDFWhat are you really buying? After a brutal de-rating the famous premium is gone — MSTR trades at ~1.0× net asset value, no longer the "$2.50 for $1 of bitcoin" the bears shorted. Sum-of-the-parts fair value ~$86 leaves a ~1.7× levered, convex bet on bitcoin with a permanent preferred coupon. Also under Tech Valuation. Whether that leverage has ever paid: see The MSTR Era vs the ETF Era.
Read the note →·PDF·Valuation model (XLSX)·MSTR era vs ETF era →·Track record →Will the CLARITY Act be signed into law before August? A probability estimate triangulated across a prediction market, a conditional-gate model, and an outside-view reference class: central estimate ~13% by 31 July, versus roughly even-money anywhere in 2026.
Read the note →·PDFA walk through every factor that actually leads Bitcoin — global liquidity, the manufacturing cycle, momentum, the growth×inflation regime, the power-law floor — and an honest scorecard on the canonical assumptions. The read: a high-beta risk asset that follows liquidity and its own trend.
Read the note →·PDFSizing Bitcoin as the monetary/settlement layer of the AI economy, 2026–2030 — agentic machine-to-machine payments, Bitcoin-native rails (L402, Lightning), AI-driven BTC demand, and the miner-to-AI-compute convergence.
Read the note →·PDF