Research
Published notes
How Close Is Quantum Computing to Being Useful?
A plain-English map of where quantum computing actually stands and an honest estimate of its pacing. The foundation milestone — error correction below threshold — was crossed in 2024–25, yet no machine has done anything economically useful a classical computer can't. "Useful" runs on three clocks: narrow scientific value now through 2030; broad commercial value in the 2030s; and a code-breaking machine that experts now put at roughly one-in-three odds within ten years — which is why banks, governments, and Bitcoin are already migrating off today's encryption. Six charts, an investment coda, and the Bitcoin-specific risk in proportion.
Read the note →·PDFWill the CLARITY Act Be Signed Into Law Before August?
A probability estimate for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) being signed into law on or before 31 July 2026, triangulated across three lenses: a Kalshi market on the exact question (~18%), a structural conditional-gate model (~6%), and an outside-view reference class of comparable bills where deadlines routinely slip (~8%). Reconciled central estimate ~13% (range 5–20%), versus a roughly even-money chance of a signing anywhere in 2026.
Read the note →·PDFWhat Actually Drives Bitcoin
An in-depth walk through every factor that actually leads Bitcoin — global liquidity, the manufacturing business cycle, price momentum, the growth×inflation regime, the power-law oscillator, the production-cost floor — plus a balanced look at the store-of-value question (correlation is the wrong test) and a scorecard on the canonical assumptions. Bitcoin reads as a high-beta risk asset that follows global liquidity and its own trend, yet has been a superior long-run store of value.
Read the note →·PDFThe TAM of AI Using Bitcoin
Sizing Bitcoin as the monetary/settlement layer of the AI economy, 2026–2030 — agentic machine-to-machine payments, Bitcoin-native rails (L402, Lightning), AI-driven BTC demand, and the miner-to-AI-compute convergence.
Read the note →·PDFTON618 Capital. For information purposes only. Not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, fund interest, or digital asset, and not investment advice or a recommendation regarding any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Digital assets are highly volatile and may result in total loss of capital.